David Deming is a Harvard economist and, since July 2025, dean of Harvard College. His best-known recent study, with Raj Chetty and John Friedman, found that attending an elite private college instead of a selective public flagship greatly raises a student's chances of reaching the very top of American society, but does much less for typical earnings. His other research shows that social skills have grown more valuable at work, and that the early pay advantage of technical majors tends to shrink.
Who is David Deming?
Deming is a professor of economics and public policy at Harvard, and in July 2025 he became the Danoff Dean of Harvard College. He studies education and work: how colleges shape students' futures, which skills the labor market rewards, and how that is changing. With Chetty and Friedman, he leads the CLIMB Initiative, which studies the role of colleges in economic mobility. In 2022 he received the Sherwin Rosen Prize for outstanding contributions to labor economics.
What this guide is based on
Three of Deming's published studies, each listed under Sources. We describe what the research found, then, separately, what we think it means for families choosing a college.
1. What elite colleges change, and what they don't
In "Diversifying Society's Leaders?" (published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2026), Chetty, Deming and Friedman studied applicants to "Ivy-Plus" colleges: the eight Ivies plus Stanford, MIT, Duke and the University of Chicago. They found:
- Who gets in: children from the richest 1% of families were twice as likely to attend an Ivy-Plus college as middle-class children with the same SAT or ACT scores. About two-thirds of that gap came from higher admission rates for applicants with the same scores.
- Why: three practices explained the advantage: preferences for children of alumni, extra weight on non-academic ratings (which tend to be higher for students from private high schools with affluent student bodies), and recruitment of athletes, who tend to come from higher-income families. Selective public flagships showed no admissions advantage for high-income applicants.
- What attending changes: comparing similar students who were and weren't admitted from waitlists, attending an Ivy-Plus college instead of a typical selective public flagship raised the chances of reaching the top 1% of earnings by about 60%, nearly doubled the chances of attending an elite graduate school, and roughly tripled the chances of working at a prestigious firm.
- What it changes less: the effect on average earnings was much smaller.
- What predicted success: test scores and academic ratings strongly predicted later outcomes. The three practices that favored wealthier applicants did not.
2. Social skills are worth more than ever
In a 2017 study, Deming found that jobs requiring a high level of social interaction grew substantially as a share of U.S. employment from 1980 to 2012, and that pay for those jobs grew too. Jobs that demanded strong math skills but little social interaction fared worse. His explanation: computers handle routine tasks well, but working with other people, coordinating, negotiating and adapting to one another remains hard to automate, and those skills pay most when combined with strong analytical ability.
3. Technical skills age quickly
In a 2020 study with Kadeem Noray, Deming found that graduates in applied science and technology fields, such as engineering and computer science, start with a large pay advantage, but that the advantage shrinks over their first decade of work. The skills those jobs require change quickly, so what a graduate learned in college goes out of date faster.
What this may mean for choosing a college
These are our readings, not Deming's advice.
- For most students, a highly selective private college and a strong public university lead to similar typical earnings. The elite-college effect shows up most at the very top: the top 1% of earners, elite graduate schools, a small number of prestigious employers. If those paths matter to you, that's worth knowing; for most careers, fit, cost and what you do in college matter more. See does college selectivity matter?
- Look for places to practice working with people. Discussion-based classes, team projects, leadership roles and jobs all build the social skills Deming's research finds increasingly valuable.
- A major's starting salary isn't the whole story. Early pay advantages can fade. Choosing a field that fits your interests, and learning how to keep learning, may serve you longer than chasing a starting salary. See what research says about personality and college fit.
Lens helps you understand which kinds of colleges and majors fit you, using seven research-backed assessments, before you build your list. Start with Lens →
FAQ
Who is David Deming? A Harvard economist who studies education and the labor market. He became dean of Harvard College in July 2025.
What did the Chetty, Deming and Friedman study find? Children from the richest 1% of families were twice as likely to attend an Ivy-Plus college as middle-class children with the same test scores, mainly because of legacy preferences, non-academic ratings and athletic recruiting. Attending raised the chances of top-1% earnings, elite graduate school and prestigious jobs, but did much less for average earnings.
What are Ivy-Plus colleges? A research grouping, not an official one: the eight Ivy League schools plus Stanford, MIT, Duke and the University of Chicago.
Does going to an elite college mean higher pay? On average, the effect is much smaller than many families assume. The clearest effects are on reaching the very top of earnings and on access to elite graduate schools and firms.
What does Deming's research say about social skills? Jobs that require working closely with other people have grown and paid increasingly well since 1980, especially when combined with strong analytical skills.
Related
- Does college selectivity matter? What the research says
- Experts on college rankings and belonging
- What college should I go to? What the research says matters most
Sources
- Chetty, R., Deming, D.J., & Friedman, J.N. Diversifying society's leaders? The determinants and causal effects of admission to highly selective private colleges. Quarterly Journal of Economics (2026); summary at Opportunity Insights.
- Deming, D.J. (2017). The growing importance of social skills in the labor market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4).
- Deming, D.J., & Noray, K. (2020). Earnings dynamics, changing job skills, and STEM careers. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(4).
- Harvard Gazette (2025), announcement of Deming's appointment as Danoff Dean of Harvard College.